Crotone 3-1 Sorrento Calcio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 15 Nov 2025

📅15/11/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.47
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
3.13
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.48
6+ Goals
7%
13.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 35% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
12%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
64%
-3.3pp
21%
Draw
22%
-0.4pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+3.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.3pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crotone EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Sorrento Calcio EU Bookmakers 17%
-11% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -9%
1.75/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/1.55
+2% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
429 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crotone
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Sorrento Calcio
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.02.2025 Sorrento Calcio Sorrento Calcio 2-1 HT 2-0 Crotone Crotone İTC
25.09.2024 Crotone Crotone 1-2 HT 1-0 Sorrento Calcio Sorrento Calcio İTC
03.02.2024 Sorrento Calcio Sorrento Calcio 1-1 HT 1-1 Crotone Crotone İTC
24.09.2023 Crotone Crotone 1-0 HT 1-0 Sorrento Calcio Sorrento Calcio İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crotone
3-1
AWAY Sorrento Calcio
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Crotone vs Sorrento Calcio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crotone beat Sorrento Calcio 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Crotone as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Crotone had 51% of the ball to Sorrento Calcio's 49%, shots finished 12-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Sorrento Calcio led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Crotone and 1.25 for Sorrento Calcio.

What was the final score of Crotone vs Sorrento Calcio?

Crotone 3-1 Sorrento Calcio in the Italy - Serie C on 15/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crotone vs Sorrento Calcio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crotone win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Crotone 61%, draw 21%, Sorrento Calcio 18%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crotone) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Crotone) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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