Bologna 1-0 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 15 Dec 2024

📅15/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.63
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
4.17
6+ Goals
10%
20.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.63 — our 33% vs market 31.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.93
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
19%
5.6
X/2
12%
5.73
X/X
13%
3.9
2/1
6%
33.5
2/2
15%
4.07
2/X
8%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+3.5pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.4pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-1.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.5pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bologna EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 37%
+7% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +0%
1.11/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.20
+18% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 80%
16.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
15.6 Crosses 17.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bologna
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Fiorentina
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.47 xG 1.35
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
365 Passes 343
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.02.2024 Bologna Bologna 2-0 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
09.01.2024 Fiorentina Fiorentina 0-0 HT 0-0 Bologna Bologna İTK
12.11.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-1 HT 1-1 Bologna Bologna İTA
05.02.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-2 HT 1-1 Bologna Bologna İTA
11.09.2022 Bologna Bologna 2-1 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
13.03.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-0 HT 0-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bologna
1-0
AWAY Fiorentina
1.20 xG 1.02
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 3
276 Passes 236
77% Pass Accuracy 69%
21 Box Touches 26
9 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bologna vs Fiorentina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bologna nicked a narrow win over Fiorentina 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Bologna found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Bologna had 51% of the ball to Fiorentina's 49%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.20 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bologna had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bologna and 0.83 for Fiorentina.

What was the final score of Bologna vs Fiorentina?

Bologna 1-0 Fiorentina in the Italy - Serie A on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bologna vs Fiorentina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bologna win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Bologna 39%, draw 28%, Fiorentina 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bologna), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bologna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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