Valenciennes 3-1 Bourg en Bresse 01 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 16 Jan 2026

Valenciennes
3-1 HT 1-0
Bourg en Bresse 01
📅16/01/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - National League 1 – 2025/2026

Valenciennes vs Bourg en Bresse 01 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.74
Over 2.5
53%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.88
No
43%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.81
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.84
6+ Goals
9%
17.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.55
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.1
X/1
15%
4.38
X/2
9%
8.28
X/X
12%
4.54
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
9%
6.76
2/X
7%
15.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 35.0 — our 8% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-1.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
54%
-6.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
46%
+6.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
49%
+8.4pp
42%
BTTS No
51%
-8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Valenciennes v Bourg en Bresse 01 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valenciennes EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Bourg en Bresse 01 EU Bookmakers 27%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +13%
1.47/0.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.15
-2% / +84% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
316 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4

Valenciennes vs Bourg en Bresse 01 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valenciennes
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Bourg en Bresse 01
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
324 Passes 291
75% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.04.2025 Bourg en Bresse 01 Bourg en Bresse 01 1-0 HT 0-0 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR3
08.11.2024 Valenciennes Valenciennes 1-2 HT 0-1 Bourg en Bresse 01 Bourg en Bresse 01 FR3
13.04.2018 Valenciennes Valenciennes 2-2 HT 0-0 Bourg en Bresse 01 Bourg en Bresse 01 FR2
17.11.2017 Bourg en Bresse 01 Bourg en Bresse 01 1-3 HT 1-1 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
14.04.2017 Bourg en Bresse 01 Bourg en Bresse 01 0-2 HT 0-0 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
18.11.2016 Valenciennes Valenciennes 3-3 HT 1-1 Bourg en Bresse 01 Bourg en Bresse 01 FR2

Valenciennes 3-1 Bourg en Bresse 01 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valenciennes
3-1
AWAY Bourg en Bresse 01
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Valenciennes vs Bourg en Bresse 01
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valenciennes beat Bourg en Bresse 01 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Valenciennes as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Valenciennes had 50% of the ball to Bourg en Bresse 01's 50%, shots finished 14-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Valenciennes and 1.50 for Bourg en Bresse 01.

What was the final score of Valenciennes vs Bourg en Bresse 01?

Valenciennes 3-1 Bourg en Bresse 01 in the France - National League 1 on 16/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valenciennes vs Bourg en Bresse 01?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valenciennes win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Valenciennes 48%, draw 25%, Bourg en Bresse 01 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valenciennes), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Valenciennes) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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