Cambuur 2-4 Utrecht II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 16 Feb 2024

Cambuur
2-4 HT 1-1
Utrecht II
📅16/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

Cambuur vs Utrecht II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.43
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.74
Over 2.5
56%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.36
2-3 Goals
39%
2.09
4-5 Goals
26%
2.49
6+ Goals
13%
5.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.69
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
16.95
X/1
22%
3.87
X/2
6%
13.45
X/X
12%
7.71
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
18.65
2/2
7%
8.86
2/X
5%
16.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.65 — our 11% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
65%
-6.9pp
24%
Draw
19%
+4.8pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+2.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
33%
+11.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
67%
-11.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.6pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cambuur v Utrecht II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cambuur EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Utrecht II EU Bookmakers 19%
-12% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -19%
2.16/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.61
+20% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
394 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 75%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
24.3 Crosses 14.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9

Cambuur vs Utrecht II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cambuur
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Utrecht II
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.13 xG 1.34
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
340 Passes 225
76% Pass Accuracy 70%
29 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.09.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 3-2 HT 2-1 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
22.02.2021 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-3 HT 0-1 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
25.09.2020 Cambuur Cambuur 5-2 HT 2-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
24.01.2020 Cambuur Cambuur 3-1 HT 1-1 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
25.10.2019 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-1 HT 0-0 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
12.04.2019 Cambuur Cambuur 4-1 HT 2-1 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2

Cambuur 2-4 Utrecht II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cambuur
2-4
AWAY Utrecht II
1.09 xG 1.79
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 1
296 Passes 335
70% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cambuur vs Utrecht II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht II got the better of Cambuur 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Cambuur at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Cambuur had 49% of the ball to Utrecht II's 51%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.09 to 1.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cambuur had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Cambuur and 1.50 for Utrecht II.

What was the final score of Cambuur vs Utrecht II?

Cambuur 2-4 Utrecht II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 16/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cambuur vs Utrecht II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cambuur win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Cambuur 58%, draw 24%, Utrecht II 18%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cambuur) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cambuur) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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