Amorebieta vs Ponferradina Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Amorebieta v Ponferradina — Team-Based Signals
Amorebieta vs Ponferradina Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Ponferradina
İS2
1-1
HT 0-1
Amorebieta
İS2
Amorebieta 3-1 Ponferradina — Actual Match Statistics
Amorebieta saw off Ponferradina 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.
Our pre-match lean was Ponferradina at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Amorebieta had 52% of the ball to Ponferradina's 48%, shots finished 11-10.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Amorebieta and 2.00 for Ponferradina.
What was the final score of Amorebieta vs Ponferradina?
Amorebieta 3-1 Ponferradina in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Amorebieta vs Ponferradina?
Before kick-off our model rated an Ponferradina win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Amorebieta 29%, draw 28%, Ponferradina 43%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.