Amorebieta 3-1 Ponferradina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 16 Feb 2025

📅16/02/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.32
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.52
Over
43%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.06
No
51%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2.21
2-3
42%
1.73
4-5
19%
4.9
6+
9%
30.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
27%
+2.4pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.3pp
43%
Away Win
44%
-1.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-5.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+5.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.9pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amorebieta EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Ponferradina EU Bookmakers 48%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +28% / +28%
1.71/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/0.00
+74% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% /
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
239 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amorebieta
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Ponferradina
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.07 xG 0.91
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
177 Passes 397
62% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.11.2024 Ponferradina Ponferradina 5-2 HT 1-2 Amorebieta Amorebieta İS3
28.05.2022 Amorebieta Amorebieta 1-0 HT 0-0 Ponferradina Ponferradina İS2
19.12.2021 Ponferradina Ponferradina 1-1 HT 0-1 Amorebieta Amorebieta İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amorebieta
3-1
AWAY Ponferradina
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Amorebieta vs Ponferradina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amorebieta saw off Ponferradina 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Ponferradina at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Amorebieta had 52% of the ball to Ponferradina's 48%, shots finished 11-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Amorebieta and 2.00 for Ponferradina.

What was the final score of Amorebieta vs Ponferradina?

Amorebieta 3-1 Ponferradina in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amorebieta vs Ponferradina?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ponferradina win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Amorebieta 29%, draw 28%, Ponferradina 43%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ponferradina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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