Lugo 2-1 Sestao River — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 16 Feb 2025

📅16/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
62%
1.48
Over
38%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.27
No
58%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1
36%
2.04
2-3
39%
1.75
4-5
17%
5.56
6+
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-2.3pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.4pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+1.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
64%
-1.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
36%
+1.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
40%
+2.1pp
58%
BTTS No
60%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugo EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Sestao River EU Bookmakers 26%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
1.35/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.25
-3% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
294 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
10.0 Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugo
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Sestao River
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
4 Yellow Cards 1
08.09.2024 Sestao River Sestao River 0-1 HT 0-1 Lugo Lugo İS3
24.03.2024 Lugo Lugo 4-3 HT 1-3 Sestao River Sestao River İS3
02.12.2023 Sestao River Sestao River 0-1 HT 0-0 Lugo Lugo İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugo
2-1
AWAY Sestao River
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lugo vs Sestao River
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugo edged past Sestao River 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lugo as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lugo had 48% of the ball to Sestao River's 52%, shots finished 12-8.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lugo had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lugo and 1.00 for Sestao River.

What was the final score of Lugo vs Sestao River?

Lugo 2-1 Sestao River in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugo vs Sestao River?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Lugo 45%, draw 30%, Sestao River 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lugo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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