Kauno Zalgiris 1-0 FK Panevezys — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - Super Cup, 16 Feb 2026

📅16/02/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
20%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
1.8
Over 2.5
61%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.88
No
36%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.94
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.62
6+ Goals
15%
15.35
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.62 — our 24% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
18%
X/2
3%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
53%
+4.0pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.9pp
19%
Away Win
22%
-2.2pp
39%
Under 2.5
52%
-13.0pp
61%
Over 2.5
48%
+13.0pp
64%
BTTS Yes
49%
+15.3pp
36%
BTTS No
51%
-15.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kauno Zalgiris EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Panevezys EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -71%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
319 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kauno Zalgiris
4W-1D-1L
AWAY FK Panevezys
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.11.2025 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 3-2 HT 1-1 FK Panevezys FK Panevezys LITA
24.08.2025 FK Panevezys FK Panevezys 1-0 HT 0-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LITA
24.06.2025 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 3-0 HT 1-0 FK Panevezys FK Panevezys LITA
19.04.2025 FK Panevezys FK Panevezys 0-2 HT 0-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LITA
05.10.2024 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Panevezys FK Panevezys LITA
20.07.2024 FK Panevezys FK Panevezys 1-2 HT 1-1 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LITA
POST-MATCH Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Panevezys
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kauno Zalgiris nicked a narrow win over FK Panevezys 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kauno Zalgiris as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (64%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kauno Zalgiris had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Kauno Zalgiris and 0.67 for FK Panevezys.

What was the final score of Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Panevezys?

Kauno Zalgiris 1-0 FK Panevezys in the Lithuania - Super Cup on 16/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Panevezys?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Kauno Zalgiris 57%, draw 23%, FK Panevezys 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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