Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers Prediction — Model Probabilities
Derby County v Bolton Wanderers — Team-Based Signals
Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Derby County 1-0 Bolton Wanderers — Actual Match Statistics
Derby County edged past Bolton Wanderers 1-0. It stood 0-0 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Derby County as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 46% and both teams to score at 51%.
Under the surface, Bolton Wanderers saw more of the ball, 57% to 43%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 0.55 to 0.43.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.67 a game for Derby County against 0.67 for Bolton Wanderers.
Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers Result & Final Score
Derby County 1 - 0 Bolton Wanderers in the England - League One on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Derby County 43%, draw 29%, Bolton Wanderers 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derby County), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.