Peterborough United 0-1 Portsmouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
4.06
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
21%
3.08
6+ Goals
11%
9.86
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.06 — our 27% vs market 19.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.96
1/2
5%
30.5
1/X
6%
12.45
X/1
15%
5.05
X/2
14%
6.77
X/X
11%
5.01
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
12%
4.47
2/X
8%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.4pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Peterborough United EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Portsmouth EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +7%
1.68/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.30
+20% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +24%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
312 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 66%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
21.5 Crosses 18.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Peterborough United
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Portsmouth
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.26 xG 1.30
52% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
326 Passes 294
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
21 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Portsmouth Portsmouth 3-1 HT 2-1 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
29.08.2023 Portsmouth Portsmouth 1-1 HT 0-1 Peterborough United Peterborough United İNLK
28.01.2023 Peterborough United Peterborough United 2-1 HT 2-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN1
03.09.2022 Portsmouth Portsmouth 2-1 HT 1-1 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
16.03.2021 Peterborough United Peterborough United 1-0 HT 1-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN1
12.01.2021 Peterborough United Peterborough United 5-1 HT 3-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Peterborough United
0-1
AWAY Portsmouth
0.89 xG 1.06
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
386 Passes 230
80% Pass Accuracy 69%
25 Box Touches 33
22 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Peterborough United vs Portsmouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portsmouth edged past Peterborough United 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Peterborough United at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Peterborough United had 59% of the ball to Portsmouth's 41%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 0.89 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Peterborough United had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Peterborough United and 1.33 for Portsmouth.

What was the final score of Peterborough United vs Portsmouth?

Peterborough United 0-1 Portsmouth in the England - 1st Division on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Peterborough United vs Portsmouth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Peterborough United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Peterborough United 43%, draw 25%, Portsmouth 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Peterborough United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Peterborough United) ✓ Under 2.5
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