Exeter City 1-0 Burton Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
34%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.62
Over 2.5
46%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.61
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.52
6+ Goals
10%
24.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.1
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.9
X/1
12%
4.54
X/2
12%
6.49
X/X
12%
4.01
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
17%
5.13
2/X
8%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.4pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.7pp
34%
Away Win
28%
+6.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
58%
-4.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
42%
+4.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.0pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Exeter City EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
1.14/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.44
-24% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
276 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 66%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
22.8 Crosses 14.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Exeter City
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Burton Albion
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.07 xG 1.14
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
307 Passes 145
71% Pass Accuracy 55%
24 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
02.09.2023 Burton Albion Burton Albion 0-1 HT 0-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
11.02.2023 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-0 HT 0-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
17.09.2022 Exeter City Exeter City 0-2 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
06.12.2014 Exeter City Exeter City 1-1 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN2
19.08.2014 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-0 HT 1-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
01.02.2014 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-1 HT 0-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Exeter City
1-0
AWAY Burton Albion
1.07 xG 1.14
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
355 Passes 277
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 35
9 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Exeter City vs Burton Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Exeter City squeezed past Burton Albion 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) promised a tight game; Exeter City found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Exeter City had 54% of the ball to Burton Albion's 46%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 1.07 to 1.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burton Albion led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Exeter City and 1.00 for Burton Albion.

What was the final score of Exeter City vs Burton Albion?

Exeter City 1-0 Burton Albion in the England - 1st Division on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Exeter City vs Burton Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Exeter City win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Exeter City 40%, draw 26%, Burton Albion 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Exeter City), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Exeter City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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