Shrewsbury 1-0 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.92
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
32%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.61
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.5
6+ Goals
9%
24.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.74
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.8
X/1
16%
4.12
X/2
12%
7.24
X/X
12%
4.21
2/1
9%
28.0
2/2
14%
5.98
2/X
7%
15.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
48%
-8.4pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.8pp
32%
Away Win
25%
+6.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
+0.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
-0.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.7pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shrewsbury EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -16%
1.35/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.52
+2% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -49% / -11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
293 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 67%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
22.2 Crosses 19.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shrewsbury
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Carlisle United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.53 xG 1.15
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
258 Passes 204
64% Pass Accuracy 60%
20 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-0 HT 0-0 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury İN1
09.08.2022 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 3-2 HT 1-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İNLK
04.12.2021 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-2 HT 0-1 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury FAK
10.02.2015 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-2 HT 0-0 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury İN2
16.09.2014 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 1-0 HT 1-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
25.03.2014 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-0 HT 0-0 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shrewsbury
1-0
AWAY Carlisle United
1.32 xG 0.64
42% Ball Possession 58%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
196 Passes 319
64% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 8
21 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Shrewsbury vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shrewsbury edged past Carlisle United 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 29% / 32% — and on the day Shrewsbury made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Shrewsbury had 42% of the ball to Carlisle United's 58%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.32 to 0.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shrewsbury had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Shrewsbury and 1.00 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of Shrewsbury vs Carlisle United?

Shrewsbury 1-0 Carlisle United in the England - 1st Division on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shrewsbury vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shrewsbury win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Shrewsbury 40%, draw 29%, Carlisle United 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shrewsbury), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Shrewsbury) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN1 More England - 1st Division
16 Mar 2024
18:00 Lincoln City vs Bristol Rovers Analysis →
18:00 Wycombe Wanderers vs Northampton Town Analysis →
18:00 Exeter City vs Burton Albion Analysis →
18:00 Stevenage vs Leyton Orient Analysis →
18:00 Peterborough United vs Portsmouth Analysis →
18:00 Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers Analysis →