Novara 2-2 Pro Vercelli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.62
Over 2.5
44%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.57
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.59
6+ Goals
9%
24.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
-0.2pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.6pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
58%
-1.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
42%
+1.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.3pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novara EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Pro Vercelli EU Bookmakers 34%
-6% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.03/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.30
-16% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
293 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novara
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Pro Vercelli
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
13.11.2023 Pro Vercelli Pro Vercelli 3-3 HT 2-1 Novara Novara İTC
29.01.2023 Novara Novara 0-1 HT 0-0 Pro Vercelli Pro Vercelli İTC
24.09.2022 Pro Vercelli Pro Vercelli 1-2 HT 1-1 Novara Novara İTC
23.01.2021 Novara Novara 1-2 HT 1-0 Pro Vercelli Pro Vercelli İTC
27.09.2020 Pro Vercelli Pro Vercelli 1-0 HT 1-0 Novara Novara İTC
05.10.2019 Novara Novara 0-1 HT 0-1 Pro Vercelli Pro Vercelli İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novara
2-2
AWAY Pro Vercelli
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Novara vs Pro Vercelli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novara and Pro Vercelli couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Novara at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Novara had 58% of the ball to Pro Vercelli's 42%, shots finished 12-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pro Vercelli led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Novara and 1.50 for Pro Vercelli.

What was the final score of Novara vs Pro Vercelli?

Novara 2-2 Pro Vercelli in the Italy - Serie C on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novara vs Pro Vercelli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novara win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Novara 41%, draw 28%, Pro Vercelli 31%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Novara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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