Auxerre 2-1 Caen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 16 Mar 2024

Auxerre
2-1 HT 0-1
Caen
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.8
6+ Goals
10%
16.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 28% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.34
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.45
X/1
15%
4.01
X/2
9%
8.83
X/X
11%
4.66
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
12%
7.05
2/X
6%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-3.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.3pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auxerre EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Caen EU Bookmakers 25%
+4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -10%
1.52/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.49
+23% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -9%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
387 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 73%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
22.9 Crosses 17.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auxerre
0W-6D-0L
AWAY Caen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.55 xG 0.75
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
408 Passes 289
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.10.2023 Caen Caen 1-1 HT 0-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
23.04.2022 Caen Caen 1-1 HT 0-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
04.12.2021 Auxerre Auxerre 2-2 HT 1-1 Caen Caen FR2
01.05.2021 Caen Caen 0-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
05.01.2021 Auxerre Auxerre 1-1 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR2
08.11.2019 Auxerre Auxerre 1-1 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auxerre
2-1
AWAY Caen
1.12 xG 0.85
65% Ball Possession 35%
23 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
15 Corners 5
467 Passes 218
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
34 Box Touches 19
44 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Auxerre vs Caen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auxerre nicked a narrow win over Caen 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Auxerre as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Auxerre had 65% of the ball to Caen's 35%, shots finished 23-10, expected goals 1.12 to 0.85.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 6 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Auxerre and 1.00 for Caen.

What was the final score of Auxerre vs Caen?

Auxerre 2-1 Caen in the France - Ligue 2 on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auxerre vs Caen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auxerre win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 49%, draw 25%, Caen 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auxerre) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Auxerre) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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