Pau 2-0 Concarneau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 16 Mar 2024

Pau
2-0 HT 0-0
Concarneau
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2023/2024

Pau vs Concarneau Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
35%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.71
Over 2.5
50%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.88
No
46%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.82
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
4.13
6+ Goals
11%
19.8
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.13 — our 23% vs market 19.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.83
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.7
X/1
13%
4.41
X/2
16%
7.11
X/X
11%
4.24
2/1
5%
27.5
2/2
13%
5.55
2/X
4%
14.2
Value flag · 1/X at 13.7 — our 12% vs market 4.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
46%
-7.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.5pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+8.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
55%
-4.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
45%
+4.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.0pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pau v Concarneau — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pau EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Concarneau EU Bookmakers 30%
-1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.82/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.58
+5% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 78%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
21.9 Crosses 17.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9

Pau vs Concarneau Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pau
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Concarneau
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.32 xG 1.75
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
290 Passes 629
77% Pass Accuracy 90%
11 Box Touches 37
10 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.11.2023 Concarneau Concarneau 1-2 HT 0-1 Pau Pau FR2
08.11.2019 Concarneau Concarneau 0-1 HT 0-1 Pau Pau FR3

Pau 2-0 Concarneau — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pau
2-0
AWAY Concarneau
1.84 xG 0.66
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 2
358 Passes 302
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pau vs Concarneau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pau beat Concarneau 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Pau made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Pau had 54% of the ball to Concarneau's 46%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.84 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Pau had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Pau and 0.50 for Concarneau.

What was the final score of Pau vs Concarneau?

Pau 2-0 Concarneau in the France - Ligue 2 on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pau vs Concarneau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pau win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Pau 38%, draw 27%, Concarneau 34%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pau) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pau) ✗ BTTS Yes
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