Once Caldas 0-1 Santa Fe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.46
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.51
Over 2.5
42%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
20%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-3.0pp
31%
Draw
32%
-0.6pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+3.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.9pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.22/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.00
-4% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +0%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
283 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
18.5 Crosses 16.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Santa Fe
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.67 xG 0.99
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
270 Passes 260
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
12 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2024 Santa Fe Santa Fe 2-1 HT 0-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
24.05.2024 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
19.05.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-0 HT 0-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
17.04.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-1 HT 0-1 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
08.11.2023 Santa Fe Santa Fe 0-1 HT 0-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
31.10.2022 Santa Fe Santa Fe 2-1 HT 1-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
0-1
AWAY Santa Fe
1.14 xG 0.36
65% Ball Possession 35%
25 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 2
365 Passes 156
84% Pass Accuracy 65%
31 Box Touches 6
28 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Santa Fe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Fe squeezed past Once Caldas 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 31% / 35%) promised a tight game; Santa Fe found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Once Caldas had 65% of the ball to Santa Fe's 35%, shots finished 25-6, expected goals 1.14 to 0.36 — on chances, Once Caldas could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santa Fe led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Once Caldas and 1.00 for Santa Fe.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Santa Fe?

Once Caldas 0-1 Santa Fe in the Colombia - Primera on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Santa Fe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Santa Fe win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 34%, draw 31%, Santa Fe 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santa Fe), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Santa Fe) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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