Monterey Bay 3-2 Oakland Roots — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
30%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.75
Over 2.5
34%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.81
No
57%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
16%
3.76
6+ Goals
6%
16.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 38% vs market 28.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-0.7pp
32%
Draw
27%
+4.9pp
30%
Away Win
34%
-4.0pp
66%
Under 2.5
53%
+13.1pp
34%
Over 2.5
47%
-13.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-8.6pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Oakland Roots EU Bookmakers 37%
-7% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.36/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.51
-39% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -33%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
318 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 76%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
22.3 Crosses 14.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterey Bay
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Oakland Roots
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.92 xG 1.44
42% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
274 Passes 448
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.06.2024 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 2-1 HT 1-0 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots USLP
07.04.2024 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots 0-1 HT 0-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
24.09.2023 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots 2-2 HT 1-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
16.07.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-3 HT 1-2 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots USLP
05.06.2022 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-2 HT 0-1 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots USLP
27.03.2022 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots 2-3 HT 1-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterey Bay
3-2
AWAY Oakland Roots
1.47 xG 0.27
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 1
303 Passes 251
76% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 6
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Monterey Bay vs Oakland Roots
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterey Bay nicked a narrow win over Oakland Roots 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 32% / 30%) promised a tight game; Monterey Bay found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Monterey Bay had 54% of the ball to Oakland Roots's 46%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 1.47 to 0.27 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Monterey Bay's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterey Bay had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Monterey Bay and 1.67 for Oakland Roots.

What was the final score of Monterey Bay vs Oakland Roots?

Monterey Bay 3-2 Oakland Roots in the USL Championship on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterey Bay vs Oakland Roots?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterey Bay win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Monterey Bay 38%, draw 32%, Oakland Roots 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterey Bay) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monterey Bay) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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