Bristol Rovers 1-0 Cambridge United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 16 Apr 2024

📅16/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.27
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.61
6+ Goals
10%
14.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.27 — our 29% vs market 25.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.74
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.6
X/1
19%
4.46
X/2
9%
7.15
X/X
12%
4.69
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
15%
5.32
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
47%
-6.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.6pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bristol Rovers EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Cambridge United EU Bookmakers 30%
-3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.32/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.08
+12% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +16%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
288 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 69%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
20.2 Crosses 18.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bristol Rovers
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Cambridge United
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.85 xG 1.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
320 Passes 257
73% Pass Accuracy 69%
16 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 2
19.08.2023 Cambridge United Cambridge United 2-0 HT 0-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
07.01.2023 Cambridge United Cambridge United 1-2 HT 1-2 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
08.10.2022 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 2-1 HT 1-1 Cambridge United Cambridge United İN1
08.08.2017 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4-1 HT 2-0 Cambridge United Cambridge United İNLK
25.03.2016 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3-0 HT 2-0 Cambridge United Cambridge United İN2
30.10.2015 Cambridge United Cambridge United 1-2 HT 1-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bristol Rovers
1-0
AWAY Cambridge United
2.00 xG 0.93
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
424 Passes 180
81% Pass Accuracy 63%
25 Box Touches 23
24 Crosses 21
POST-MATCH Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bristol Rovers edged past Cambridge United 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bristol Rovers as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Bristol Rovers had 64% of the ball to Cambridge United's 36%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 2.00 to 0.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bristol Rovers had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Bristol Rovers and 1.00 for Cambridge United.

What was the final score of Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United?

Bristol Rovers 1-0 Cambridge United in the England - 1st Division on 16/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bristol Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Bristol Rovers 41%, draw 28%, Cambridge United 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bristol Rovers), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bristol Rovers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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