Burton Albion 1-2 Cheltenham Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 16 Apr 2024

📅16/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.19
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
37%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.54
Over 2.5
37%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.33
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
5.21
6+ Goals
9%
32.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.36
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.35
X/1
9%
4.6
X/2
11%
5.99
X/X
20%
3.8
2/1
8%
32.5
2/2
19%
4.9
2/X
8%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
42%
-10.8pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.5pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+7.3pp
63%
Under 2.5
61%
+1.7pp
37%
Over 2.5
39%
-1.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.0pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 33%
-6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -10%
1.22/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.44
-16% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -17%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
261 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 69%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
21.0 Crosses 15.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burton Albion
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Cheltenham Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.13 xG 1.04
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
253 Passes 265
66% Pass Accuracy 66%
21 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2024 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
01.04.2023 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
22.10.2022 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-0 HT 0-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN1
08.01.2022 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
27.08.2021 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-1 HT 0-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN1
07.02.2015 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-3 HT 0-2 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burton Albion
1-2
AWAY Cheltenham Town
0.46 xG 0.62
45% Ball Possession 55%
5 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
141 Passes 193
47% Pass Accuracy 53%
6 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Burton Albion vs Cheltenham Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cheltenham Town squeezed past Burton Albion 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 32% / 37% — and on the day Cheltenham Town made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Burton Albion had 45% of the ball to Cheltenham Town's 55%, shots finished 5-9, expected goals 0.46 to 0.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burton Albion had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Burton Albion and 0.50 for Cheltenham Town.

What was the final score of Burton Albion vs Cheltenham Town?

Burton Albion 1-2 Cheltenham Town in the England - 1st Division on 16/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burton Albion vs Cheltenham Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cheltenham Town win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Burton Albion 31%, draw 32%, Cheltenham Town 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cheltenham Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cheltenham Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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