BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
BFC Daugavpils v FS Jelgava — Team-Based Signals
BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
BFC Daugavpils 1-0 FS Jelgava — Actual Match Statistics
BFC Daugavpils squeezed past FS Jelgava 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had BFC Daugavpils as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 59% of the ball to FS Jelgava's 41%, shots finished 16-8.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 0.67 for FS Jelgava.
What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
BFC Daugavpils 1-0 FS Jelgava in the Latvia - Virsliga on 16/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 47%, draw 24%, FS Jelgava 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.