BFC Daugavpils 1-0 FS Jelgava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 25 May 2025

📅25/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.46
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
29%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
49%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
24%
X/2
12%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+3.4pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.4pp
29%
Away Win
36%
-6.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.1pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 39%
+30% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
1.68/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.10
+47% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / -27%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
277 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 78%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
18.6 Crosses 25.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
2W-3D-1L
AWAY FS Jelgava
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.86 xG 1.07
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
262 Passes 267
70% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.04.2025 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 4-1 HT 2-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
01.09.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
21.06.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-0 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
03.05.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-0 HT 1-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
09.03.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
16.09.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
1-0
AWAY FS Jelgava
1.19 xG 1.66
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
230 Passes 370
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils squeezed past FS Jelgava 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 30% / 29% — and on the day BFC Daugavpils made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 40% of the ball to FS Jelgava's 60%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.19 to 1.66 — the balance of chances actually favoured FS Jelgava.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 0.67 for FS Jelgava.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?

BFC Daugavpils 1-0 FS Jelgava in the Latvia - Virsliga on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 40%, draw 30%, FS Jelgava 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFC Daugavpils), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
LET More Latvia - Virsliga
25 May 2025
18:00 FK Tukums 2000 vs Rigas Skola Analysis →