BFC Daugavpils 2-0 FS Jelgava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 27 Jul 2025

📅27/07/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.47
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
37%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
-0.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.0pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+0.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.3pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 40%
+32% / +35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -32% / -32%
1.58/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.13
+39% / +78% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -65% / -17%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
259 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 80%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
18.1 Crosses 24.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
3W-2D-1L
AWAY FS Jelgava
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.96 xG 1.21
50% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
279 Passes 272
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.05.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-0 HT 1-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
10.04.2025 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 4-1 HT 2-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
01.09.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
21.06.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-0 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
03.05.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-0 HT 1-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
09.03.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
2-0
AWAY FS Jelgava
1.57 xG 1.17
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 0
2 Corners 6
278 Passes 408
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 29
7 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils beat FS Jelgava 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 37% — and on the day BFC Daugavpils made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 41% of the ball to FS Jelgava's 59%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 1.57 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 0.67 for FS Jelgava.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?

BFC Daugavpils 2-0 FS Jelgava in the Latvia - Virsliga on 27/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 37%, draw 27%, FS Jelgava 37%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/27/37) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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