Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Hamburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 16 May 2026

Bayer Leverkusen
1-1 HT 0-0
Hamburg
📅16/05/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
77%
1.29
Draw
13%
5.28
Away
10%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
31%
3.59
Over 2.5
69%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.55
No
41%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
13%
8.23
2-3 Goals
39%
2.34
4-5 Goals
34%
2.29
6+ Goals
14%
3.74
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.44
1/2
3%
34.0
1/X
6%
19.2
X/1
24%
4.17
X/2
4%
18.2
X/X
3%
10.2
2/1 EV+ ✗
14%
16.8
2/2
3%
13.1
2/X
3%
21.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 16.8 — our 14% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
77%
Home Win
73%
+4.8pp
13%
Draw
16%
-3.0pp
10%
Away Win
12%
-1.8pp
31%
Under 2.5
24%
+6.4pp
69%
Over 2.5
76%
-6.4pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.3pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayer Leverkusen v Hamburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Hamburg EU Bookmakers 15%
-6% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -7%
2.26/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.99
-2% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -16%
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
545 · 88% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 77%
35.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
21.4 Crosses 14.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Hamburg
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.37 xG 1.13
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
337 Passes 238
74% Pass Accuracy 67%
25 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
04.03.2026 Hamburg Hamburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
17.02.2018 Hamburg Hamburg 1-2 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
24.09.2017 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 HT 2-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL1
03.02.2017 Hamburg Hamburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
10.09.2016 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL1
13.03.2016 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 HT 1-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL1

Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Hamburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
1-1
AWAY Hamburg
3.27 xG 1.78
60% Ball Possession 40%
26 Total Shots 19
9 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 3
527 Passes 328
90% Pass Accuracy 81%
53 Box Touches 25
38 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburg shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. Bayer Leverkusen carried 77% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, both teams to score (59%) landed while over 2.5 goals (69%) missed.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 60% of the ball to Hamburg's 40%, shots finished 26-19, expected goals 3.27 to 1.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.50 for Hamburg.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburg?

Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Hamburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 77%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 77%, draw 13%, Hamburg 10%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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