Heidenheim 0-2 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 16 May 2026

📅16/05/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
Over 2.5
60%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.43
No
39%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.1
2-3 Goals
39%
1.95
4-5 Goals
29%
2.61
6+ Goals
12%
6.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.5
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
4%
13.1
X/1
7%
4.87
X/2 EV+ ✗
14%
7.63
X/X
15%
6.23
2/1
7%
19.75
2/2
12%
4.92
2/X
6%
13.75
Value flag · X/2 at 7.63 — our 14% vs market 9.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-4.7pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.9pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.7pp
61%
BTTS Yes
66%
-4.6pp
39%
BTTS No
34%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 32%
+37% / +37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +6%
1.36/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.61
+85% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
335 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 75%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
18.4 Crosses 17.5
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidenheim
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Mainz 05
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.97 xG 1.40
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
303 Passes 319
72% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.01.2026 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-1 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
16.02.2025 Heidenheim Heidenheim 0-2 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
28.09.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-2 HT 0-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
05.05.2024 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-1 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
16.12.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-1 HT 0-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heidenheim
0-2
AWAY Mainz 05
2.53 xG 3.71
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 3
345 Passes 302
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 32
29 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Heidenheim vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 got the better of Heidenheim 2-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Heidenheim at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Heidenheim had 53% of the ball to Mainz 05's 47%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 2.53 to 3.71.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Heidenheim and 1.00 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of Heidenheim vs Mainz 05?

Heidenheim 0-2 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidenheim vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heidenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Heidenheim 43%, draw 24%, Mainz 05 32%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Heidenheim) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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