Union Berlin 4-0 Augsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 16 May 2026

📅16/05/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
42%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.98
Over 2.5
54%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.32
No
43%
3.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
7.05
2-3 Goals
38%
2.19
4-5 Goals
27%
2.36
6+ Goals
11%
4.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.45
1/2
7%
20.6
1/X
8%
11.9
X/1
11%
6.52
X/2
15%
6.21
X/X
10%
6.54
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.4
2/2
20%
3.2
2/X
5%
11.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.4 — our 10% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-2.6pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.8pp
42%
Away Win
39%
+3.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
30%
+15.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
70%
-15.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
72%
-14.7pp
43%
BTTS No
28%
+14.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Augsburg EU Bookmakers 43%
+11% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.35/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.12
+11% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -27%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
363 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 76%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
20.8 Crosses 21.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Berlin
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Augsburg
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.23 xG 1.28
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
380 Passes 327
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
15.01.2026 Augsburg Augsburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
17.05.2025 Augsburg Augsburg 1-2 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
15.01.2025 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-2 HT 0-2 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
12.04.2024 Augsburg Augsburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
25.11.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-1 HT 0-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
06.05.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Berlin
4-0
AWAY Augsburg
3.68 xG 0.61
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 9
376 Passes 369
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Union Berlin vs Augsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Berlin cruised past Augsburg 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Augsburg at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Union Berlin had 49% of the ball to Augsburg's 51%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 3.68 to 0.61.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Augsburg led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Union Berlin and 1.33 for Augsburg.

What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Augsburg?

Union Berlin 4-0 Augsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Augsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 35%, draw 23%, Augsburg 42%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Augsburg), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Augsburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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