Freiburg 4-1 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 16 May 2026

📅16/05/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
41%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.43
No
41%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.04
2-3 Goals
39%
1.94
4-5 Goals
26%
2.62
6+ Goals
12%
6.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.39
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
23.5
1/X
6%
12.15
X/1
13%
5.97
X/2
17%
6.13
X/X
9%
5.75
2/1
8%
23.1
2/2
15%
3.53
2/X
7%
12.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.5 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-1.7pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.0pp
41%
Away Win
36%
+4.7pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.3pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.3pp
59%
BTTS Yes
66%
-6.3pp
41%
BTTS No
34%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 40%
+8% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -7%
1.50/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.40
+10% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
422 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 80%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
19.2 Crosses 16.7
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
0W-1D-5L
AWAY RB Leipzig
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.96 xG 1.92
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
328 Passes 425
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
14.01.2026 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
08.03.2025 Freiburg Freiburg 0-0 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
26.10.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-1 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
06.04.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 1-4 HT 0-3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
12.11.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-1 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
06.05.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 0-1 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
4-1
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.41 xG 1.24
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 2
280 Passes 429
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
25 Box Touches 28
9 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg cruised past RB Leipzig 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 22% / 41% — and on the day Freiburg made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Freiburg had 41% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 59%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.41 to 1.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Freiburg and 2.17 for RB Leipzig.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?

Freiburg 4-1 RB Leipzig in the Germany - Bundesliga on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated an RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 37%, draw 22%, RB Leipzig 41%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (RB Leipzig) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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