St. Pauli 1-3 Wolfsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 16 May 2026

St. Pauli
1-3 HT 0-1
Wolfsburg
📅16/05/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
38%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.92
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
2.97
6+ Goals
12%
9.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.61
1/2
7%
25.0
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
15%
5.85
X/2
17%
5.83
X/X
10%
5.1
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
25.5
2/2
14%
3.59
2/X
6%
12.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 10% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.1pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.2pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+1.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.3pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

St. Pauli v Wolfsburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 40%
-19% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +24%
0.96/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.34
-56% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
315 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 77%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
21.8 Crosses 17.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Wolfsburg
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.17 xG 1.64
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
323 Passes 429
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.01.2026 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-1 HT 1-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
08.03.2025 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
26.10.2024 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-0 HT 0-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
16.04.2011 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-2 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
21.11.2010 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-1 HT 1-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
26.01.2002 St. Pauli St. Pauli 3-1 HT 0-1 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1

St. Pauli 1-3 Wolfsburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
1-3
AWAY Wolfsburg
1.49 xG 3.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 10
8 Corners 9
245 Passes 349
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wolfsburg beat St. Pauli 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 23% / 37%) promised a tight game; Wolfsburg found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, St. Pauli had 44% of the ball to Wolfsburg's 56%, shots finished 11-19, expected goals 1.49 to 3.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for St. Pauli and 1.17 for Wolfsburg.

What was the final score of St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg?

St. Pauli 1-3 Wolfsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 39%, draw 23%, Wolfsburg 37%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (St. Pauli) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Pauli) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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