Incheon United 4-0 Gwangju — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 16 May 2026

📅16/05/2026 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
62%
1.53
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
16%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
1.6
Over
54%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
2.33
No
47%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2.41
2-3
37%
1.73
4-5
27%
4.57
6+
9%
25.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.93
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
3%
17.95
X/1
32%
3.63
X/2
3%
12.0
X/X
13%
4.51
2/1
5%
29.0
2/2
9%
11.55
2/X
6%
20.75
Value flag · X/1 at 3.63 — our 32% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Incheon United win — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
61%
+0.6pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.2pp
16%
Away Win
15%
+1.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
59%
-13.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
41%
+13.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
39%
+14.0pp
47%
BTTS No
61%
-14.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Incheon United EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Gwangju EU Bookmakers 18%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
2.00/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.58/1.82
+15% / +117% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / -18%
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
422 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 12.0
Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Incheon United
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Gwangju
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
325 Passes 466
77% Pass Accuracy 87%
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
07.03.2026 Gwangju Gwangju 3-2 HT 1-1 Incheon United Incheon United GKOR
27.10.2024 Incheon United Incheon United 1-0 HT 1-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOR
14.07.2024 Gwangju Gwangju 0-2 HT 0-1 Incheon United Incheon United GKOR
25.05.2024 Incheon United Incheon United 1-1 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
03.04.2024 Gwangju Gwangju 2-3 HT 0-1 Incheon United Incheon United GKOK
28.10.2023 Gwangju Gwangju 0-2 HT 0-0 Incheon United Incheon United GKOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Incheon United
4-0
AWAY Gwangju
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 1
502 Passes 421
92% Pass Accuracy 92%
18 Crosses 6
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Incheon United vs Gwangju
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Incheon United cruised past Gwangju 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Incheon United as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Incheon United had 55% of the ball to Gwangju's 45%, shots finished 13-5.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Incheon United had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Incheon United and 1.00 for Gwangju.

What was the final score of Incheon United vs Gwangju?

Incheon United 4-0 Gwangju in the South Kore - K League Classic on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Incheon United vs Gwangju?

Before kick-off our model rated a Incheon United win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Incheon United 62%, draw 22%, Gwangju 16%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Incheon United), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Incheon United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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GKOR More South Kore - K League Classic
16 May 2026
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