Sagan Tosu 1-1 Renofa Yamaguchi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — JAP2-3, 16 May 2026

📅16/05/2026 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.96
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.67
Over 2.5
48%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.54
2-3 Goals
42%
1.7
4-5 Goals
20%
4.1
6+ Goals
10%
20.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
47%
+2.3pp
22%
Draw
28%
-5.5pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+3.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi EU Bookmakers 29%
-31% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
0.50/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.75
-58% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -35%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
349 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.5 Crosses 18.3
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sagan Tosu
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
57% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
438 Passes 306
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.03.2026 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 2-0 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP2-3
05.10.2025 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 1-2 HT 0-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP2
19.04.2025 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 2-2 HT 1-0 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JAP2
21.08.2024 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-2 HT 0-2 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagan Tosu
1-1
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 2
367 Passes 362
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sagan Tosu vs Renofa Yamaguchi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sagan Tosu and Renofa Yamaguchi shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Sagan Tosu at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Sagan Tosu had 51% of the ball to Renofa Yamaguchi's 49%, shots finished 16-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Renofa Yamaguchi led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sagan Tosu and 1.75 for Renofa Yamaguchi.

What was the final score of Sagan Tosu vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

Sagan Tosu 1-1 Renofa Yamaguchi in the JAP2-3 on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagan Tosu vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sagan Tosu win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Sagan Tosu 49%, draw 22%, Renofa Yamaguchi 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sagan Tosu), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sagan Tosu) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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