Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Alanyaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 16 May 2026

📅16/05/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
39%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
39%
Away Win
41%
-1.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.7pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Alanyaspor EU Bookmakers 45%
+8% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / +9%
1.34/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/0.95
+7% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +19%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
310 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 80%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
14.1 Crosses 19.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Alanyaspor
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.99 xG 1.24
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
391 Passes 432
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
13.01.2026 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 2-2 HT 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TÜK
21.12.2025 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 2-0 HT 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
06.02.2025 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 4-1 HT 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TÜK
25.02.2024 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 HT 1-0 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
06.10.2023 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 2-1 HT 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
22.01.2023 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 2-2 HT 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
2-1
AWAY Alanyaspor
1.78 xG 0.74
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 4
357 Passes 481
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
14 Box Touches 22
7 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük nicked a narrow win over Alanyaspor 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 39% — and on the day Fatih Karagümrük made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Fatih Karagümrük had 44% of the ball to Alanyaspor's 56%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 1.78 to 0.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alanyaspor led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 2.17 for Alanyaspor.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?

Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Alanyaspor in the Turkey - Super League on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Alanyaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 34%, draw 27%, Alanyaspor 39%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Alanyaspor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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