Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Independiente Medellin v Deportes Tolima — Team-Based Signals
Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-1
Independiente Medellin
KOL
Independiente Medellin 2-1 Deportes Tolima — Actual Match Statistics
Independiente Medellin edged past Deportes Tolima 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Independiente Medellin as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Independiente Medellin had 37% of the ball to Deportes Tolima's 63%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 0.29 to 1.01 — on chances, Deportes Tolima could feel hard done by.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.00 for Deportes Tolima.
What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima?
Independiente Medellin 2-1 Deportes Tolima in the Colombia - Primera on 16/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima?
Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 52%, draw 24%, Deportes Tolima 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Medellin) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.