Hegelmann II 1-5 Kauno Zalgiris II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 16 Aug 2025

📅16/08/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.53
Draw
17%
3.72
Away
50%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.23
Over 2.5
62%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.46
No
36%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
5%
X/2
16%
X/X
4%
2/1
9%
2/2
27%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
36%
-2.6pp
17%
Draw
23%
-6.5pp
50%
Away Win
41%
+9.1pp
38%
Under 2.5
41%
-2.6pp
62%
Over 2.5
59%
+2.6pp
64%
BTTS Yes
64%
-0.5pp
36%
BTTS No
36%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hegelmann II EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris II EU Bookmakers 45%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
0.80/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.28/1.39
-44% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +56% / -7%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
346 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 389 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hegelmann II
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris II
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
44% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.04.2025 Kauno Zalgiris II Kauno Zalgiris II 2-0 Hegelmann II LIT1
16.09.2024 Kauno Zalgiris II Kauno Zalgiris II 0-2 Hegelmann II LIT1
29.04.2024 Hegelmann II 0-3 HT 0-1 Kauno Zalgiris II Kauno Zalgiris II LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hegelmann II
1-5
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris II
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 9
9 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hegelmann II vs Kauno Zalgiris II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kauno Zalgiris II ran out comfortable winners over Hegelmann II 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-4. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Kauno Zalgiris II as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (64%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Hegelmann II had 54% of the ball to Kauno Zalgiris II's 46%, shots finished 11-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Kauno Zalgiris II led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Hegelmann II and 1.67 for Kauno Zalgiris II.

What was the final score of Hegelmann II vs Kauno Zalgiris II?

Hegelmann II 1-5 Kauno Zalgiris II in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 16/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hegelmann II vs Kauno Zalgiris II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kauno Zalgiris II win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Hegelmann II 33%, draw 17%, Kauno Zalgiris II 50%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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