JK Tammeka Tartu 1-4 Parnu JK Vaprus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 16 Sep 2025

📅16/09/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.08
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
46%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
Over 2.5
59%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.46
No
37%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
5%
X/2
18%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
24%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
29%
-2.2pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.4pp
46%
Away Win
48%
-2.2pp
63%
BTTS Yes
64%
-1.0pp
37%
BTTS No
36%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME JK Tammeka Tartu EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 52%
+14% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -33% / -33%
1.84/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.44
+39% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / -27%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
291 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME JK Tammeka Tartu
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.08.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 8-1 HT 4-0 JK Tammeka Tartu JK Tammeka Tartu EST1
17.05.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 2-1 HT 1-0 JK Tammeka Tartu JK Tammeka Tartu EST1
29.03.2025 JK Tammeka Tartu JK Tammeka Tartu 0-5 HT 0-3 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
18.09.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 2-2 HT 2-1 JK Tammeka Tartu JK Tammeka Tartu EST1
02.08.2024 JK Tammeka Tartu JK Tammeka Tartu 0-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
23.05.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-1 HT 0-1 JK Tammeka Tartu JK Tammeka Tartu EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME JK Tammeka Tartu
1-4
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH JK Tammeka Tartu vs Parnu JK Vaprus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parnu JK Vaprus swept aside JK Tammeka Tartu 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Parnu JK Vaprus as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (63%) came in.

On the day, JK Tammeka Tartu had 41% of the ball to Parnu JK Vaprus's 59%, shots finished 11-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Parnu JK Vaprus led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for JK Tammeka Tartu and 3.17 for Parnu JK Vaprus.

What was the final score of JK Tammeka Tartu vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

JK Tammeka Tartu 1-4 Parnu JK Vaprus in the Estonia - Premium League on 16/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for JK Tammeka Tartu vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Parnu JK Vaprus win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split JK Tammeka Tartu 26%, draw 28%, Parnu JK Vaprus 46%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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