Parnu JK Vaprus 2-1 JK Tammeka Tartu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.9
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-2.5pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.5pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.9pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY JK Tammeka Tartu EU Bookmakers 30%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
1.52/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.44
-4% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
369 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
3W-2D-1L
AWAY JK Tammeka Tartu
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.03.2025 JK Tammeka Tartu JK Tammeka Tartu 0-5 HT 0-3 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
18.09.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 2-2 HT 2-1 JK Tammeka Tartu JK Tammeka Tartu EST1
02.08.2024 JK Tammeka Tartu JK Tammeka Tartu 0-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
23.05.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-1 HT 0-1 JK Tammeka Tartu JK Tammeka Tartu EST1
09.03.2024 JK Tammeka Tartu JK Tammeka Tartu 1-0 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
05.11.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 2-0 HT 1-0 JK Tammeka Tartu JK Tammeka Tartu EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
2-1
AWAY JK Tammeka Tartu
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 4
11 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Tammeka Tartu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parnu JK Vaprus edged past JK Tammeka Tartu 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Parnu JK Vaprus as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Parnu JK Vaprus had 52% of the ball to JK Tammeka Tartu's 48%, shots finished 14-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Parnu JK Vaprus had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Parnu JK Vaprus and 0.67 for JK Tammeka Tartu.

What was the final score of Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

Parnu JK Vaprus 2-1 JK Tammeka Tartu in the Estonia - Premium League on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Parnu JK Vaprus win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Parnu JK Vaprus 46%, draw 21%, JK Tammeka Tartu 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) ✗ BTTS No
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