Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 16 Nov 2025

📅16/11/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.32
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
45%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.62
Over 2.5
43%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.96
No
52%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
23%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
26%
+1.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.0pp
44%
Away Win
45%
-0.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
58%
-0.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
42%
+0.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.3pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Osaka EU Bookmakers 49%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +15%
0.87/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/0.52
-26% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +132%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
263 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.7 Crosses 22.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Osaka
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
293 Passes 142
69% Pass Accuracy 54%
18 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.05.2025 Osaka Osaka 1-0 HT 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
14.07.2024 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 2-0 HT 2-0 Osaka Osaka JAP3
23.03.2024 Osaka Osaka 0-0 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
03.09.2023 Osaka Osaka 3-1 HT 2-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
03.05.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 HT 0-0 Osaka Osaka JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1-1
AWAY Osaka
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
283 Passes 168
72% Pass Accuracy 59%
24 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga and Osaka shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Osaka at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 58% of the ball to Osaka's 42%, shots finished 13-12.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 0.80 for Osaka.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Osaka?

Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Osaka in the Japan - J3 League on 16/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 28%, draw 27%, Osaka 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Osaka), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Osaka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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