Ajaccio 2-1 Caen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 17 Jan 2025

Ajaccio
2-1 HT 0-0
Caen
📅17/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.33
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
1.6
Over Pick
52%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2.49
2-3
38%
1.74
4-5
26%
4.42
6+
8%
23.4
Value flag · 4-5 at 4.42 — our 26% vs market 16.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.51
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
9%
5.18
X/2
11%
6.22
X/X
13%
3.83
2/1
14%
31.0
2/2
13%
4.68
2/X
8%
13.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.0 — our 14% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
43%
Home Win
39%
+3.7pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.4pp
30%
Away Win
30%
-0.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
59%
-10.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
41%
+10.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.5pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajaccio The Market 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Caen The Market 34%
+5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.22/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.27
-5% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -26%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
306 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 73%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
21.8 Crosses 19.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajaccio
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Caen
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.05 xG 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
334 Passes 402
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
20.09.2024 Caen Caen 1-0 HT 0-0 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR2
20.04.2024 Ajaccio Ajaccio 2-1 HT 2-0 Caen Caen FR2
26.08.2023 Caen Caen 3-0 HT 2-0 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR2
24.01.2022 Caen Caen 2-0 HT 0-0 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR2
25.08.2021 Ajaccio Ajaccio 2-0 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
16.01.2021 Ajaccio Ajaccio 1-0 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajaccio
2-1
AWAY Caen
1.04 xG 0.84
38% Ball Possession 62%
17 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
232 Passes 406
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ajaccio vs Caen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajaccio edged past Caen 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ajaccio as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Ajaccio had 38% of the ball to Caen's 62%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 1.04 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Ajaccio and 1.17 for Caen.

What was the final score of Ajaccio vs Caen?

Ajaccio 2-1 Caen in the France - Ligue 2 on 17/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajaccio vs Caen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajaccio win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ajaccio 43%, draw 27%, Caen 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajaccio), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ajaccio) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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