Toulouse vs Nice Prediction — Model Probabilities
Toulouse v Nice — Team-Based Signals
Toulouse vs Nice Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Toulouse 5-1 Nice — Actual Match Statistics
Toulouse overpowered Nice 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. With 6 goals, entertainment was never the problem.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Toulouse as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.
The goals picture was genuinely open: 47% for over 2.5, 50% on both teams scoring. If anything the market was more convinced: the BTTS-yes price stood at 1.74, roughly 57%.
The match data tells the story: Nice saw more of the ball, 57% to 43%, shots finished 22-15, expected goals 1.84 to 1.99.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toulouse had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.83 a game for Toulouse against 0.67 for Nice.
Toulouse vs Nice Result & Final Score
Toulouse 5-1 Nice in the France - Ligue 1 on 17/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Toulouse vs Nice Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 47%, draw 25%, Nice 28%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toulouse) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.