Excelsior 2-2 Telstar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 17 Jan 2026

Excelsior
2-2 HT 0-0
Telstar
📅17/01/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2025/2026

Excelsior vs Telstar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.63
No
40%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.66
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.21
6+ Goals
12%
11.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.18
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
30.0
1/X
5%
12.5
X/1
10%
5.37
X/2
11%
6.72
X/X
14%
4.9
2/1
9%
24.85
2/2
15%
4.51
2/X
7%
12.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 30.0 — our 9% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.9pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+3.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.1pp
60%
BTTS Yes
57%
+3.0pp
40%
BTTS No
43%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Excelsior v Telstar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Telstar EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.42/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/2.21
-24% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +49%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
323 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
17.0 Crosses 16.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

Excelsior vs Telstar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Telstar
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.57 xG 1.50
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
346 Passes 300
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.11.2025 Telstar Telstar 2-2 HT 2-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
21.02.2025 Telstar Telstar 1-3 HT 0-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
13.09.2024 Excelsior Excelsior 3-2 HT 2-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
08.04.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 1-4 HT 1-2 Telstar Telstar HOL2
06.11.2021 Telstar Telstar 2-5 HT 1-3 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
16.04.2021 Telstar Telstar 1-1 HT 1-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2

Excelsior 2-2 Telstar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
2-2
AWAY Telstar
1.72 xG 1.83
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
410 Passes 219
81% Pass Accuracy 69%
26 Box Touches 24
27 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs Telstar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior and Telstar shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged both teams to score (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Excelsior had 62% of the ball to Telstar's 38%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 1.72 to 1.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Excelsior and 2.00 for Telstar.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs Telstar?

Excelsior 2-2 Telstar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 17/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs Telstar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 39%, draw 26%, Telstar 34%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Excelsior) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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