PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PEC Zwolle v AZ Alkmaar — Team-Based Signals
PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-3
HT 0-1
AZ Alkmaar
HOL
PEC Zwolle 3-1 AZ Alkmaar — Actual Match Statistics
PEC Zwolle saw off AZ Alkmaar 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.
This one beat our numbers. AZ Alkmaar carried 62% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, PEC Zwolle had 47% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 53%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.78 to 0.64.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for PEC Zwolle and 2.33 for AZ Alkmaar.
What was the final score of PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
PEC Zwolle 3-1 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 17/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split PEC Zwolle 18%, draw 20%, AZ Alkmaar 62%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) went the other way.