Fortuna Sittard 1-2 PSV Eindhoven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 17 Jan 2026

📅17/01/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.13
Draw
18%
4.08
Away
60%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
2.51
Over 2.5
66%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.55
No
43%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.36
2-3 Goals
41%
2.01
4-5 Goals
26%
2.63
6+ Goals
14%
6.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
7.7
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
19.1
1/X
5%
16.25
X/1
7%
10.85
X/2
18%
4.41
X/X
8%
6.97
2/1
8%
35.0
2/2
32%
1.96
2/X
5%
14.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.1 — our 10% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
21%
+0.9pp
18%
Draw
21%
-3.4pp
61%
Away Win
58%
+2.5pp
34%
Under 2.5
36%
-2.3pp
66%
Over 2.5
64%
+2.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.1pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 62%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +9%
1.38/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.21/1.06
+5% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -1%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 81%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.7
16.4 Crosses 18.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Sittard
0W-1D-5L
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.65 xG 2.07
30% Ball Possession 70%
6 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
190 Passes 563
68% Pass Accuracy 87%
13 Box Touches 36
10 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 0
31.10.2025 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 5-2 HT 3-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
03.05.2025 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 4-1 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
22.09.2024 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-3 HT 1-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
12.05.2024 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-1 HT 1-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
21.10.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-1 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
14.05.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 2-1 HT 1-1 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Sittard
1-2
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
0.38 xG 2.78
30% Ball Possession 70%
6 Total Shots 18
1 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 14
195 Passes 555
70% Pass Accuracy 88%
12 Box Touches 39
9 Crosses 35
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven nicked a narrow win over Fortuna Sittard 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had PSV Eindhoven as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Fortuna Sittard had 30% of the ball to PSV Eindhoven's 70%, shots finished 6-18, expected goals 0.38 to 2.78 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold PSV Eindhoven's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 3.00 for PSV Eindhoven.

What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven?

Fortuna Sittard 1-2 PSV Eindhoven in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 17/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Sittard 22%, draw 18%, PSV Eindhoven 61%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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