NAC Breda 3-4 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 17 Jan 2026

NAC Breda
3-4 HT 1-2
NEC Nijmegen
📅17/01/2026 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2025/2026

NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.38
Draw
36%
3.45
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
2.0
Over 2.5
41%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.61
No
44%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.7
2-3 Goals
44%
1.81
4-5 Goals
19%
3.18
6+ Goals
10%
10.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 27% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.61
1/2
8%
27.0
1/X
10%
13.15
X/1
10%
5.72
X/2
12%
5.91
X/X
15%
5.11
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
16%
3.8
2/X
10%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
38%
-9.6pp
36%
Draw
26%
+9.9pp
36%
Away Win
36%
-0.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
46%
+12.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
54%
-12.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.7pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NAC Breda v NEC Nijmegen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 39%
-10% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
1.24/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.48
-11% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +15%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
328 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 79%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.9
20.9 Crosses 19.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.5

NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
2W-0D-4L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.21 xG 1.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
387 Passes 318
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.08.2025 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-0 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
14.05.2025 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-0 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
05.10.2024 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
23.05.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-2 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL2
03.05.2021 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-2 HT 0-2 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
30.10.2020 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-1 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL2

NAC Breda 3-4 NEC Nijmegen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
3-4
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
0.92 xG 1.19
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 3
226 Passes 307
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen nicked a narrow win over NAC Breda 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 29% / 36% / 36% — and on the day NEC Nijmegen made the difference. On goals, both teams to score (56%) landed while under 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, NAC Breda had 46% of the ball to NEC Nijmegen's 54%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 0.92 to 1.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, NEC Nijmegen led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for NAC Breda and 1.50 for NEC Nijmegen.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen?

NAC Breda 3-4 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 17/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen?

Before kick-off our model rated an NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 29%, draw 36%, NEC Nijmegen 36%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (29/36/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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