Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0-3 Monarcas Morelia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 17 Jan 2026

📅17/01/2026 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.29
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
49%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
20%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
27%
+0.5pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.6pp
49%
Away Win
47%
+2.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.3pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Monarcas Morelia EU Bookmakers 51%
-17% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
0.98/2.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.07
-19% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -54% / +6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
223 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.2 Yellow Cards 4.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Monarcas Morelia
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
10.08.2025 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 3-1 HT 3-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
09.02.2025 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 2-1 HT 1-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
26.08.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 HT 1-1 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
14.04.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3-3 HT 1-2 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
05.10.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 0-0 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
14.04.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 2-1 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0-3
AWAY Monarcas Morelia
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Monarcas Morelia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monarcas Morelia cruised past Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Monarcas Morelia as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Alebrijes de Oaxaca had 57% of the ball to Monarcas Morelia's 43%, shots finished 16-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monarcas Morelia led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.83 for Monarcas Morelia.

What was the final score of Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Monarcas Morelia?

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0-3 Monarcas Morelia in the Mexico - Primera A on 17/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Monarcas Morelia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monarcas Morelia win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Alebrijes de Oaxaca 28%, draw 23%, Monarcas Morelia 49%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monarcas Morelia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monarcas Morelia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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