Felgueiras 1932 0-1 Leixoes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 17 Jan 2026

📅17/01/2026 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.98
2-3 Goals
36%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.63
6+ Goals
10%
15.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 31% vs market 26.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
5%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
59%
-1.1pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.7pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+2.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Felgueiras 1932 EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Leixoes EU Bookmakers 21%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +13%
0.40/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.41
-40% / +110% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
401 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
6.0 Crosses 17.3
0.0 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Felgueiras 1932
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Leixoes
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.61 xG 1.71
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
83 Passes 216
61% Pass Accuracy 67%
7 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
10.08.2025 Leixoes Leixoes 3-0 HT 2-0 Felgueiras 1932 Felgueiras 1932 POR2
18.04.2025 Felgueiras 1932 Felgueiras 1932 4-0 HT 2-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
07.12.2024 Leixoes Leixoes 2-2 HT 0-1 Felgueiras 1932 Felgueiras 1932 POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Felgueiras 1932
0-1
AWAY Leixoes
1.58 xG 0.74
61% Ball Possession 39%
4 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
160 Passes 147
75% Pass Accuracy 68%
15 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leixoes edged past Felgueiras 1932 1-0 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Felgueiras 1932 at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Felgueiras 1932 had 61% of the ball to Leixoes's 39%, shots finished 4-8, expected goals 1.58 to 0.74 — the balance of chances actually favoured Felgueiras 1932.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Felgueiras 1932 and 1.67 for Leixoes.

What was the final score of Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes?

Felgueiras 1932 0-1 Leixoes in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 17/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Felgueiras 1932 win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Felgueiras 1932 58%, draw 22%, Leixoes 20%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Felgueiras 1932) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Felgueiras 1932) ✓ Under 2.5
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