Penafiel 0-2 Portimonense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 17 Jan 2026

📅17/01/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
36%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.78
Over 2.5
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.76
No
44%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.91
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.71
6+ Goals
10%
16.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-5.2pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+6.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+3.2pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Portimonense EU Bookmakers 33%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -17%
1.43/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.53
-11% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -32%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
303 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.4 Crosses 15.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Portimonense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.39 xG 1.14
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
168 Passes 297
69% Pass Accuracy 79%
10 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
21.09.2025 Portimonense Portimonense 1-1 HT 1-1 Penafiel Penafiel POK
09.08.2025 Portimonense Portimonense 2-1 HT 1-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
21.02.2025 Penafiel Penafiel 3-0 HT 3-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR2
28.09.2024 Portimonense Portimonense 0-2 HT 0-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
19.11.2021 Penafiel Penafiel 0-3 HT 0-3 Portimonense Portimonense POK
09.12.2015 Penafiel Penafiel 1-1 HT 1-1 Portimonense Portimonense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
0-2
AWAY Portimonense
0.26 xG 3.05
28% Ball Possession 72%
7 Total Shots 24
1 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 2
113 Passes 482
60% Pass Accuracy 89%
13 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Portimonense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portimonense got the better of Penafiel 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Portimonense made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Penafiel had 28% of the ball to Portimonense's 72%, shots finished 7-24, expected goals 0.26 to 3.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Penafiel and 1.17 for Portimonense.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Portimonense?

Penafiel 0-2 Portimonense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 17/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Portimonense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 38%, draw 26%, Portimonense 36%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Penafiel), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Penafiel) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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