Portimonense 1-1 Penafiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
4.65
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
45%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
29%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
18%
+14.7pp
22%
Draw
20%
+2.0pp
45%
Away Win
62%
-16.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.1pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portimonense EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Penafiel EU Bookmakers 66%
-39% / -39% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.07
-16% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -19%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
322 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portimonense
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Penafiel
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.14 xG 1.39
52% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
297 Passes 168
79% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.08.2025 Portimonense Portimonense 2-1 HT 1-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
21.02.2025 Penafiel Penafiel 3-0 HT 3-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR2
28.09.2024 Portimonense Portimonense 0-2 HT 0-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
19.11.2021 Penafiel Penafiel 0-3 HT 0-3 Portimonense Portimonense POK
09.12.2015 Penafiel Penafiel 1-1 HT 1-1 Portimonense Portimonense POR2
23.09.2015 Penafiel Penafiel 1-2 HT 0-1 Portimonense Portimonense PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portimonense
1-1
AWAY Penafiel
32% Ball Possession 68%
10 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Portimonense vs Penafiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portimonense and Penafiel couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Penafiel at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Portimonense had 32% of the ball to Penafiel's 68%, shots finished 10-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portimonense had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Portimonense and 1.33 for Penafiel.

What was the final score of Portimonense vs Penafiel?

Portimonense 1-1 Penafiel in the Portugal - Cup on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portimonense vs Penafiel?

Before kick-off our model rated an Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Portimonense 33%, draw 22%, Penafiel 45%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Penafiel), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Penafiel) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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