Portimonense vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Portimonense v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
Portimonense vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-3
HT 0-3
Portimonense
POK
1-1
HT 1-1
Portimonense
POR2
1-2
HT 0-1
Portimonense
PORLC
Portimonense 1-1 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
Portimonense and Penafiel couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.
Our pre-match lean was Penafiel at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Portimonense had 32% of the ball to Penafiel's 68%, shots finished 10-17.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portimonense had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Portimonense and 1.33 for Penafiel.
What was the final score of Portimonense vs Penafiel?
Portimonense 1-1 Penafiel in the Portugal - Cup on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Portimonense vs Penafiel?
Before kick-off our model rated an Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Portimonense 33%, draw 22%, Penafiel 45%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Penafiel), Over 2.5 went the other way.