FC Bari 1908 1-0 FeralpiSalo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.71
Over 2.5
43%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.81
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
4.04
6+ Goals
9%
19.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 31% vs market 29.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.82
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.2
X/1
15%
4.42
X/2 EV+ ✗
17%
7.05
X/X
12%
4.14
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
9%
5.46
2/X
7%
13.75
Value flag · X/2 at 7.05 — our 17% vs market 10.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
55%
+2.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
45%
-2.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.0pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Bari 1908 EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY FeralpiSalo EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.21/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.84
-8% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +0%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
374 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 76%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
24.0 Crosses 16.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Bari 1908
0W-2D-1L
AWAY FeralpiSalo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.90 xG 1.49
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
407 Passes 215
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
33 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 3
11.11.2023 FeralpiSalo FeralpiSalo 3-3 HT 0-1 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB
26.05.2021 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 0-0 HT 0-0 FeralpiSalo FeralpiSalo İTC
23.05.2021 FeralpiSalo FeralpiSalo 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Bari 1908
1-0
AWAY FeralpiSalo
1.54 xG 0.28
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 0
275 Passes 299
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Bari 1908 vs FeralpiSalo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Bari 1908 nicked a narrow win over FeralpiSalo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FC Bari 1908 as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, FC Bari 1908 had 50% of the ball to FeralpiSalo's 50%, shots finished 8-8, expected goals 1.54 to 0.28 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold FC Bari 1908's control.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, FeralpiSalo led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Bari 1908 and 1.33 for FeralpiSalo.

What was the final score of FC Bari 1908 vs FeralpiSalo?

FC Bari 1908 1-0 FeralpiSalo in the Italy - Serie B on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Bari 1908 vs FeralpiSalo?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Bari 1908 win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split FC Bari 1908 42%, draw 27%, FeralpiSalo 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Bari 1908), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Bari 1908) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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