Spezia 4-2 Cittadella — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
37%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.71
Over 2.5
39%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.77
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
4.11
6+ Goals
8%
19.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.77 — our 35% vs market 29.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.14
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
9%
13.05
X/1
15%
4.71
X/2
13%
6.35
X/X
14%
4.07
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
18%
4.79
2/X
6%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
42%
-7.8pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.3pp
37%
Away Win
29%
+7.5pp
61%
Under 2.5
55%
+6.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
45%
-6.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.3pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spezia EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Cittadella EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -6%
1.29/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.11
-12% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +19%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
252 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 73%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
19.9 Crosses 24.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spezia
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cittadella
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.96 xG 1.46
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
347 Passes 285
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.12.2023 Cittadella Cittadella 4-1 HT 1-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
28.10.2020 Cittadella Cittadella 0-2 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTK
19.01.2020 Spezia Spezia 1-1 HT 1-1 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
24.08.2019 Cittadella Cittadella 0-3 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
17.05.2019 Spezia Spezia 1-2 HT 0-1 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
09.02.2019 Cittadella Cittadella 0-1 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spezia
4-2
AWAY Cittadella
1.40 xG 0.74
66% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
525 Passes 211
88% Pass Accuracy 70%
25 Box Touches 10
25 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Spezia vs Cittadella
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spezia beat Cittadella 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 29% / 37% — and on the day Spezia made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Spezia had 66% of the ball to Cittadella's 34%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.40 to 0.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spezia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Spezia and 1.17 for Cittadella.

What was the final score of Spezia vs Cittadella?

Spezia 4-2 Cittadella in the Italy - Serie B on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spezia vs Cittadella?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cittadella win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Spezia 34%, draw 29%, Cittadella 37%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cittadella) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTB More Italy - Serie B
17 Feb 2024
16:00 Parma vs Pisa Analysis →
16:00 Reggiana vs Ternana Analysis →
16:00 FC Bari 1908 vs FeralpiSalo Analysis →
16:00 Lecco vs Cosenza Calcio Analysis →
18:15 Catanzaro vs Südtirol Analysis →
18:15 Sampdoria vs Brescia Analysis →