Parma 3-2 Pisa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 17 Feb 2024

Parma
3-2 HT 1-1
Pisa
📅17/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2023/2024

Parma vs Pisa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.87
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.97
6+ Goals
9%
18.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.87 — our 30% vs market 28.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.55
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.9
X/1
16%
4.14
X/2
14%
7.78
X/X
11%
4.35
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
9%
6.18
2/X
10%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-4.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.7pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Parma v Pisa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parma EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Pisa EU Bookmakers 28%
-3% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -13%
1.50/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.37
-16% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
347 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 76%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
23.2 Crosses 20.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7

Parma vs Pisa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parma
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Pisa
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.14 xG 1.06
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
340 Passes 309
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.08.2023 Pisa Pisa 1-2 HT 0-1 Parma Parma İTB
28.02.2023 Parma Parma 0-1 HT 0-0 Pisa Pisa İTB
08.10.2022 Pisa Pisa 0-0 HT 0-0 Parma Parma İTB
22.02.2022 Pisa Pisa 0-0 HT 0-0 Parma Parma İTB
26.09.2021 Parma Parma 1-1 HT 0-1 Pisa Pisa İTB
12.08.2018 Parma Parma 0-1 HT 0-1 Pisa Pisa İTK

Parma 3-2 Pisa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parma
3-2
AWAY Pisa
1.52 xG 1.86
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
402 Passes 451
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
32 Box Touches 13
13 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Parma vs Pisa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parma nicked a narrow win over Pisa 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Parma as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Parma had 47% of the ball to Pisa's 53%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.52 to 1.86.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pisa led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Parma and 0.67 for Pisa.

What was the final score of Parma vs Pisa?

Parma 3-2 Pisa in the Italy - Serie B on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parma vs Pisa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Parma win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Parma 44%, draw 27%, Pisa 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Parma) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Parma) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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