Slaven Belupo 2-2 Hajduk Split — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 17 Apr 2026

📅17/04/2026 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
4.13
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
60%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.89
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
3.59
6+ Goals
11%
15.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.89 — our 29% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
6%
X/2
28%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
16%
Home Win
21%
-4.4pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.6pp
60%
Away Win
55%
+5.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.5pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 59%
+0% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -18%
0.82/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/0.93
-25% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -12%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
236 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 80%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.3
18.9 Crosses 18.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slaven Belupo
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Hajduk Split
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.58 xG 1.08
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
289 Passes 309
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
07.02.2026 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-0 HT 2-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
02.11.2025 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-0 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
17.08.2025 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 3-0 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
05.04.2025 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
26.01.2025 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 0-0 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
20.10.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-2 HT 0-2 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slaven Belupo
2-2
AWAY Hajduk Split
2.11 xG 1.73
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 1
266 Passes 383
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Slaven Belupo vs Hajduk Split
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Slaven Belupo and Hajduk Split shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Hajduk Split at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Slaven Belupo had 44% of the ball to Hajduk Split's 56%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 2.11 to 1.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Slaven Belupo and 1.33 for Hajduk Split.

What was the final score of Slaven Belupo vs Hajduk Split?

Slaven Belupo 2-2 Hajduk Split in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 17/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slaven Belupo vs Hajduk Split?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Slaven Belupo 16%, draw 23%, Hajduk Split 60%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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