HNK Gorica 0-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 17 Apr 2026

📅17/04/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.19
Draw
22%
3.28
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.82
Over 2.5
54%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
42%
+3.6pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.7pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+0.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
51%
-4.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
49%
+4.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.7pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -14%
1.41/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.23
+10% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -21%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
286 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 75%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
17.6 Crosses 18.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.45 xG 1.22
49% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
294 Passes 309
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.02.2026 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-0 HT 2-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
03.11.2025 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 4-1 HT 3-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
16.08.2025 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-3 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
24.05.2025 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-3 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
28.03.2025 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
21.12.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-4 HT 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
0-2
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
0.28 xG 2.45
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 1
392 Passes 338
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 19
28 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiva Zagreb got the better of HNK Gorica 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was HNK Gorica at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 53% of the ball to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 47%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.28 to 2.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiva Zagreb led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for HNK Gorica and 2.17 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

HNK Gorica 0-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 17/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated a HNK Gorica win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 46%, draw 23%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 32%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (HNK Gorica) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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