1860 München 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.57
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.43
Over 2.5
54%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.6
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
24%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
60%
-5.9pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.4pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+2.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.5pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME 1860 München EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 22%
-3% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -12%
2.16/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/2.04
+15% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -17%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
395 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 72%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.1 Crosses 17.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME 1860 München
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
282 Passes 353
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 11
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
21.12.2024 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 3-1 HT 1-1 1860 München 1860 München AL3
03.02.2024 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-0 HT 0-0 1860 München 1860 München AL3
02.09.2023 1860 München 1860 München 1-2 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
18.03.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-3 HT 0-2 1860 München 1860 München AL3
16.09.2022 1860 München 1860 München 3-1 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
09.04.2017 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 3-0 HT 1-0 1860 München 1860 München AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME 1860 München
1-1
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
372 Passes 258
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH 1860 München vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

1860 München and Erzgebirge Aue couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was 1860 München at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, 1860 München had 56% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 44%, shots finished 12-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for 1860 München and 1.67 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of 1860 München vs Erzgebirge Aue?

1860 München 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for 1860 München vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated a 1860 München win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split 1860 München 54%, draw 25%, Erzgebirge Aue 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (1860 München), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (1860 München) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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